We Have Crossed the Threshold

As of 1980, humanity crossed the sustainability threshold, according to Wackernagel of The Ecological Footprint fame in the July 9, 2002 issue of PNAS (Proceedings of the National Academy of Science). That is, we reached the earth's carrying capacity nearly forty years ago. Since then, we have been munching on forests, turning the most fertile lands into deserts, and breeding, eating and producing wastes at a rate that is far greater than the earth can regenerate. We are now consuming at a rate that would take 1.2 earths to sustain. The number is even greater --1.4 earths -- if we set aside a modest 12% of the earth's surface as human-free wilderness for the other 10 million species. That is, it'd take almost an earth and a half to support our present behavior and retain the variety of present species.

We are now in overshoot mode. When we crossed the threshold in 1980 there were but four-and-half billion people on the planet. We're now at 6.7, shooting for 9 billion by 2050, with per capita consumption expected to quintuple.

So, a simple dieback scenario suggests that sometime this century, the population crash will drop us back to a sustainable population, the true carrying capacity, which appears to be -- at present consumption and technology -- no more than four-and-half billion people. Given that we will have further reduced the earth's life-sustaining capabilities by that point, 4.5 billion is an optimistic number. The later the crash, the greater our global population, the more we will have further debilitated our life-support system, and so therefore the greater the crash. If it occurs after 2050, we could see a Malthusian dieback encompassing some four billion or more people.

 

 

 

Oil Exporters

The Dec. 9, 2007 New York Times: Oil-Nations Use More Energy, Cutting Exports.  “The economies of many big oil-exporting countries are growing so fast that their need for energy within their borders is crimping how much they can sell abroad, adding new strains to the global oil market.” Saudi Arabia, Russia, Mexico, Norway, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Libya, Bahrain, Kuwiat, Qatar, Venezuela—all are producing—through petroleum sales—large wealthy and middle-classes, and we know what that means: more consumption per capita.  More cars, bigger homes, air conditioners, vacations, etc. 

And the fields in a number of large oil producers are already drying up.  “Indonesia flipped from exporting oil to importing it three years ago, because of sagging production and rising demand.  Iran [!!], Algeria and Malaysia are vulnerable over the next decade.  Most oil experts view Mexico [!] as the next country to flip, in as little as five years.” 

This, of course, affects peak oil debates, as well as rising oil prices, a struggling American economy and the global economy picture, in general.  The big losers, however, continue to be the quiet billions of people who increasingly depend on high-yield grains for their survival.  High-yield grains tend to require irrigation and intensive fertilizing, both of which are energy.  Pesticides and farm machinery—which also require great energy inputs—can be substituted by manual labor.  Rising oil prices will continue the squeeze on poor farmers and the three billion undernourished people who depend on them.

Why We Won’t Avert Our Ecological Suicide: III

“The growing awareness of the impending disaster cannot, in itself, halt the process.”  A quote from E.J. Mishan, The Costs of Economic Growth, p. 97.   Even should a farmer who is barely scratching a living from the soil understand that overpopulation and poor farming practices are major contributing factors to our ecological suicide, it will likely not be in his best personal interest to have fewer children or stop tilling the soil.  Even if he knows that he is one more drop in the bucket of our collective demise, even if he fully understands the global dimension, he cannot do anything different, except as a completely altruistic gesture.  He may need children to insure his survival in later years.  He may be too poor to afford fuel to cook his food or heat his home, and therefore he must burn the stubble from the fields and the dung from his animals, the very matter that should feed his soil.  

According to a number of analysts, including Dr. Pimentel at Cornell University, humans are destroying farmland at the rate of 10,000,000 hectares a year.  That’s 25,400,000 acres a year.  That’s an area of fertile land the size of the whole of the United States before the end of the century.

Sir Albert Howard, called the founder of the organic farming movement, noted in his 1947 book, The Soil and Health, that what one takes out of the soil, one must make sure gets put back in.  However, as Professor Rattan Lal, director at the Ohio Agricultural Research and Development Center at Ohio State University, says, “Miserable, poor, hungry and desperate, they pass their misery to the land.”  In these conditions, one does not have the energy or the means to take care of the land.  The soils of Africa, particularly, are fast losing their life-sustaining nutrients.  And then the land, in a “positive” feedback loop, passes on its impoverishment back to the farmer.  

Some seventy percent of the Third World citizens are farmers.  And some 850 million people, according to the U.N., go to bed hungry each day.  Two to three billion people suffer from micronutrient deficiencies.  They are stunted physically and mentally.  They suffer from eye diseases, blindness, and die early from a host of diseases—cancer, malaria, measles, etc.  85 million people suffer acute hunger, and 9 million of these die each year of starvation or disease that their malnourished bodies cannot fight.  

Still, even as we degrade the Earth’s soil, there is still plenty of food grown on the planet to feed everyone well.  Frances Lappe and several co-authors showed convincingly in World Hunger: Twelve Myths that hunger is greatly a political and economic issue.  Europe, the United States and Japan import foods from impoverished nations, food that arguably should stay home and feed the malnourished people there.  This has been the story during the abundant decades, the last half of the 20th century when oil, water, grains, fertilizers, pesticides were all relatively cheap.  Now, as we reach “peak” in all these, when everything is going to become more expensive, can we expect the First World to become suddenly altruistic by abandoning biofuels, abandoning fishing off the coasts of the Third World countries, forgiving national debts, foregoing subsidizing their farmers in the global market, foregoing the eating of meat grown on tropical lands cleared from forests and the transporting of exotic foods, and blithely paying—that is, without military interventions—top dollar for oil.  Can we expect the world’s wealthiest billion people to cut back on consumption, to eat less meat, to eat locally grown foods.  Probably not, even though these wealthiest are also the best educated, the most informed about our ecological suicide.

The Bifurcation of Humanity

Forecasts for the near future reported in The Futurist (Nov. – Dec. 2007), hardly a pessimistic journal, include :

  • A billion millionaires by 2025.
  • 5.2 billion people facing water shortages by 2025.
  • Population projections have been bumped up to 9.2 billion for 2050.
  • Most of the 2.5 billion new additions will occur in countries least able to grow food.
  • Worldwide consumption of crude oil will rise by more than 40%
  • The number of road vehicles will grow from 0.8 billion to 1.1 billion
  •  “The earth is on the verge on a significant species extinction event.”
  • Because of the ongoing acidification of the oceans, mussels’ shell-building process will be 25% slower by 2100.
  • The number of Africans affected by floods will increase 70-fold, from 1 million to 70 million by 2080.

The bifurcation of the condition of the world’s people continues unabated.  True, this has been a problem since the beginning of agriculturally-based civilization, when 95% of the people were relegated to the impoverished masses.  As the human story has unfolded in the past six thousand years, the lot of humanity has generally improved as a percentage of the total, but the absolute number of people suffering has increased exponentially.  In 1650, there were less than 500 million people on the planet.  Today, almost double that number go to bed hungry each and every day, and six times that number suffer from micronutrient deficiencies and the ravages of water-borne diseases.

As yachts, swimming pools and tropical, ski and eco vacations becomes the norm for increasing millions, the division of our human family into rich and very poor will surely widen in the future.  The rich will enjoy the comforts of green technology, smart homes, nano robots, bioengineering and virtual experiences.  The poor will suffer the horrors of famine, disease and war.  However, even the rich in gated communities and island hide-aways will not be able to fully escape:

·      the psychological and (for some) the economic repercussions of witnessing global famine.

·      the accelerating effects of global warming .

·      the unpredictable effects of potential ecosystem breakdowns in the context of species extinctions and global warming.

·      anxiety as “terrorist events become more common and deadly.” 

Net Primary Production

We control 50% of the earth’s land plant life.

How much of the earth’s resources are humans consuming?  The earth is big and we are small, and from an individual’s perspective any reasonable attempt to answer this would be daunting.  So, some have narrowed the measure of our impact to only the plant matter that we consume.  This is called the net primary production (NPP).  According to Imhoff et al. in a 2004 article in Nature and to Vitousek et al. in an 1997 article in Science – perhaps the two most prestigious peer-reviewed science journals – we consume about a third of the Earth’s plant matter.  We make up 0.5% (that is, one-half of 1% of the mass of all animals) and yet we consume about 33% of the earth’s land plant biomass.  

Not included in these measurements were land lost to desertification and urban settlements, roads, etc.  The true human impact may be closer to 50% (which was within other studies reported by Vitousek et al. (1986) in Bioscience and Rojstaczer et al. (2001) in Science. Also absent from these calculations were our use of freshwater, our consumption of fossil fuels, or the appropriation of the NPP from freshwater and marine ecosystems.  

The human population is supposed to increase by another third by 2050, and consumption is projected to quintuple.  Given that the Earth is already groaning under our weight, and the human ecological footprint is far greater than 100%, we certainly cannot take 500% more from the Earth.  It is no surprise, then, when improved technologies is looked to as our savior.  How else, many ask, can we ameliorate our impact?