Global Food Shortages Now

“The tightest world grain stocks in about 30 years are contributing to rising food inflation, fueling worries about food shortages in some countries and straining international aid budgets.”  From USA Today, Oct. 16, 2007.  

“Oil prices surged to a new record of $89 a barrel Wednesday after Turkey’s parliament authorized an incursion into northern Iraq in search of Kurdish rebels.”  From MSNBC, Oct. 17, 2007.

Many water-scarce countries-- such as Egypt, Mexico, Pakistan, Algeria, Iran -- have been importing grain rather than meeting their needs through increased irrigation, as it takes about 1000 tons of water to produce 1 ton of grain.  Higher grain and oil prices will hit these countries hard, and the poorest hardest, of course.  According to Lester Brown at the Earth Policy Institute, “Overall, the water required to produce the grain and other farm products imported into the Middle East and North Africa last year equaled the annual flow of the Nile River at Aswan. In effect, the region’s water deficit can be thought of as another Nile flowing into the region in the form of imported grain.”

World grain stocks have been steadily dropping since 1999 from 116 days to 57 days in 2006, according to Earth Policy Institute’s compilation of USDA data.  This means that for seven years running we have consumed more grain globally than we grew.  Most of our calories and protein come either directly from grain consumption or from animals that were grain fed.  

Worldwide, an additional 74 million people must be fed each year, further straining already diminishing land, water and oil resources.  Although the world’s farmers have been able to keep up with demand, the world grain production per person has been dropping since 1984 and has returned to 1970 levels, during early Green Revolution years. 

Farming have not yet gravely felt the effects of aquifer draw-down, desertification and global warming.  However, China has imported more grain than it has exported since 2004, and, because of the depletion of the Ogallala aquifer, farmers in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas have returned to lower-yield rain-fed crops. 

Conclusion: Population, consumption and expectations for increased consumption are all rising.  Water, land and fossil fuel resources are either degrading or diminishing.  Climate has remained relatively benign.  However, the specter of global warming effects looms.  Food production has been below consumption, and world grain stocks have declined.  We’re already walking the tightrope, and we’re still early into the century.     

 

 

More Fuel for Peak Oil, Less for the Poor

The Dec. 9, 2007 New York Times: Oil-Nations Use More Energy, Cutting Exports.  “The economies of many big oil-exporting countries are growing so fast that their need for energy within their borders is crimping how much they can sell abroad, adding new strains to the global oil market.” Saudi Arabia, Russia, Mexico, Norway, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Libya, Bahrain, Kuwiat, Qatar, Venezuela—all are producing—through petroleum sales—large wealthy and middle-classes, and we know what that means: more consumption per capita.  More cars, bigger homes, air conditioners, vacations, etc. 

And a number of large oil producers are already drying up.  “Indonesia flipped from exporting oil to importing it three years ago, because of sagging production and rising demand.  Iran [!!], Algeria and Malaysia are vulnerable over the next decade.  Most oil experts view Mexico [!] as the next country to flip, in as little as five years.” 

This, of course, affects peak oil debates, as well as rising oil prices, a struggling American economy and the global economy picture, in general.  The big losers, however, continue to be the quiet billions of people who increasingly depend on high-yield grains for their survival.  High-yield grains tend to require irrigation and intensive application of synthetic fertilizers, both of which require considerable energy.  Pesticides and farm machinery—which also require great energy inputs—can be substituted by manual labor.  Rising oil prices will continue the squeeze on poor farmers and the three billion undernourished people who depend on them.

Why we won’t avert Ecological Suicide: II

Natural Capitalism, written in 1999 by Paul Hawkins and Amory and L. Hunter Lovins, stands as one of the great contributions to the ecological discussion, a masterful synthesis of the specific global problems and of their solutions.  With invariable optimism they present economic solutions to ecologic problems, showing us through anecdote that it is being applied somewhere on the Earth and through statistic that we can all benefit. And the answers lie not only in their book, of course.  Our minds have become inundated with answers as thoroughly as are bodies are bathed in electromagnetic waves.  An impressive, seemingly infinite, array of ecological solutions are scattered throughout our information media, from the great academic journals to the magazines, newspapers, books, radio, television and internet.  And what they repeatedly demonstrate is that we already possess the required technology and understand the necessary governmental policies that can provide a sustainable and comfortable existence for all humanity.  We may already know all that we need to halt the further degradation of our oceans, forests, atmosphere, land and wildlife.  Yet, because of the complex of socioeconomics, politics and biology, we will likely not implement any solution in time to avert our Ecological Suicide.  Intelligent as we are, we will allow our animalian instincts to commit mass suicide as surely as any organism with plenty of food and few predators.

In Natural Capitalism, the authors suggest one powerful way government can force business into sustainable behavior: tax behaviors deemed unsustainable and subsidize those considered sustainable.  In The Costs of Economic Growth the English economist E.J. Mishan independently agrees that should government undertake such action it could theoretically eliminate all environmental problems.  But he finds that the social and cultural complexities are beyond the abilities of our institutions to implement such wise tax laws.  Keeping in mind that within our so-called democratic countries, officials must face election every few years, (in Chapter 14: Self-Sustaining Economic Predicaments) Mishan lays out four powerful obstacles to government intervention:

  1. The costs of correcting our behaviors are usually perceived as being greater than the benefits.
  2. The environmental consequences of our behaviors are imperfectly known and understood.  Much is still hidden and the therefore the range of destruction will surely be greater than we now project.  So, whatever we do enact will be the very minimum necessary and likely not be enough.
  3. That it takes many years (usually decades) for the cumulative effects on the biosphere to be realized, discourages governments from imposing immediate restrictions, taxes, etc.
  4. That costs are immediate, but benefits are years (decades) later further discourages government action.
  5. As ecological consequences are increasingly global in scale, any one government acting alone will not only have diminished to negligible effect, but it will put them at an economic disadvantage within the sphere of international competition.  This leads to the ever more complicated necessity of bringing all the major nations, each with their own needs, problems and social neuroses to work together, but now without the coercive power that each sovereignty, by definition, commands.  Whereas the United States can force state compliance, the United Nations enjoys no such power. 

The last point (the issue of unfair disadvantage), by the way, is the same argument made by Robert Reich in Supercapitalism with respect not to countries but to companies and the obstacles to corporate responsibility.  One cannot expect Walmart, for instance, to provide health care and other labor benefits for its workers unless all businesses do the same.  Otherwise, it puts Walmart at a competitive disadvantage, and so will likely lead to its demise (and so the demise of its workers).

Even these objections to an optimistic appraisal of humanity’s fortunes are timid, for they assume an ideal sense of laissez faire economics and our democratic institutions working side-by-side, free of influence.  However, even the most idealistic American citizen over the age of ten now accepts certain inadequacies of government, namely: (1) Business has obtained great power in influencing “democratic” government through the power of lobbyist and campaign finance, at the very least.  That leaders tend to be drawn from a rather small group of elite goes into a whole other level of debate. (2) Not everyone agrees that the environment is in enough peril to sanction any sacrifice of economic performance. (3) There is great effort at the ground level among political functionaries and business managers to subvert the imposed laws.  Particularly notorious are China and India.  However, American and European business traffic in illegal fish, arms and shipping on a truly colossal scale.  (4) The difficulties in many countries are so extreme as to make environmental concerns existentially meaningless.  If you’re being bombed right now, of what consequence is global warming? 

Maintaining agreement on action and individual compliance on tribal scales was difficult enough.  Now, with six-and-half billion people covering the earth we are finding the collective action necessary to avert our demise nearly impossible.  We have been imminently successful at the animalian—eliminating competition, procuring food, reproducing.  Indeed, Adam Smith’s capitalism was a catalyst to our success.  With its prescription of individual selfish interest creating a web of collective good, it gelled perfectly well with our reading of the rules of the jungle.  But we are finding that the universe is far more nuanced than the lessons we have taken from Adam Smith and Darwin (although they themselves would have been surprised at how we interpreted their ideas).  We have found that to live harmoniously (sustainably, if you prefer) with the Earth requires higher order behavior—selflessness, honesty, compassion, humility, and these, we are discovering, are far more difficult to execute than childishly selfish ones.   It is these more mature behaviors that will be necessary to hold back our selfish, childish, animal instincts.  On a large scale, humanity will have to mature beyond our childish, or perhaps adolescent, level.  So far there is little room for optimism.

Global Food Shortages Now

“The tightest world grain stocks in about 30 years are contributing to rising food inflation, fueling worries about food shortages in some countries and straining international aid budgets.”  From USA Today, Oct. 16, 2007. 

“Oil prices surged to a new record of $89 a barrel Wednesday after Turkey’s parliament authorized an incursion into northern Iraq in search of Kurdish rebels.”  From MSNBC, Oct. 17, 2007.

Many water-scarce countries-- such as Egypt, Mexico, Pakistan, Algeria, Iran -- have been importing grain rather than meeting their needs through increased irrigation, as it takes about 1000 tons of water to produce 1 ton of grain.  Higher grain and oil prices will hit these countries hard, and the poorest hardest, of course.  According to Lester Brown at the Earth Policy Institute, “Overall, the water required to produce the grain and other farm products imported into the Middle East and North Africa last year equaled the annual flow of the Nile River at Aswan. In effect, the region’s water deficit can be thought of as another Nile flowing into the region in the form of imported grain.”

World grain stocks have been steadily dropping since 1999 from 116 days to 57 days in 2006, according to Earth Policy Institute’s compilation of USDA data.  This means that for seven years running we have consumed more grain globally than we grew.  Most of our calories and protein come either directly from grain consumption or from animals that were grain fed. 

Worldwide, an additional 74 million people must be fed each year, further straining already diminishing land, water and oil resources.  Although the world’s farmers have been able to keep up with demand, the world grain production per person has been dropping since 1984 and has returned to 1970 levels, during early Green Revolution years.

Farming have not yet gravely felt the effects of aquifer draw-down, desertification and global warming.  However, China has imported more grain than it has exported since 2004, and, because of the depletion of the Ogallala aquifer, farmers in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas have returned to lower-yield rain-fed crops.

Conclusion: Population, consumption and expectations for increased consumption are all rising.  Water, land and fossil fuel resources are either degrading or diminishing.  Climate has remained relatively benign.  However, the specter of global warming effects looms.  Food production has been below consumption, and world grain stocks have declined.  We’re already walking the tightrope, and we’re still early into the century.     

Scarce Resources, Scarce Wisdom

ScienceNow Daily News (Oct. 22, 2007) reports that “A high-flying world economy is pumping out the [CO2] gas at an unprecedented rate.”  The annual increase of carbon concentrations has reached 1.93 parts per million, “the fastest rate of buildup since monitoring activities began in 1959.”  This despite Al Gore’s Oscar, despite the Nobel Peace Prize shared by Al Gore and the IPCC, despite the green advertisements and all the media attention global warming has received.  Even the industrial countries of Japan and Europe, although far ahead of the United States in awareness and policy, have not come close to reckoning with their footprint.  Nor have the “green” Hollywood and rock star celebrities with their large and many homes and jet set lifestyles.  It is not because we do not have the technological or policy knowledge.  It is because we do not have the will to change.   

The cover story of the October 21 New York Times Magazine titled  “The Future is Drying Up” alerts us to the possibility that the Eco-catastrophe is not exclusively a Third World problem.  The American West –the driest part of our country – happens to also be the fastest growing.  A drought several years in the making now has brought lake and reservoir levels down to half capacity.  Or as the pessimists would say, they’re half  empty. Given the effects of global warming and increased human consumption, it is likely that “normal” levels will not again be reached and that we have passed “peak water.”   In the front page October 23 New York Times article “New to Being Dry, the South Struggles to Adapt” the more than year-long drought is described as the worst is Southeast history.  Alabama and Georgia planners are already behind in providing enough water for their residents, and demand is expected to double in the next 30 years. Here, to—the paper reports—officials, homeowners and business have not shown the will to slow consumption. 

We cannot intellectualize or manufacture will.  It is an internal, voluntary process which arises organically with wisdom.  Also thought of as maturity, consciousness and awareness—wisdom is the result of a developmental process according to the various psychologists including Piaget, Erikson and Gowan.  Crises in an individual’s life often serve as springboards to new levels of awareness.  The global crisis we as a species now face will likely serve as such a vehicle.  The question becomes: Will we—collectively— mature fast enough to avert a complete eco-collapse and a human dieback?  

Once in the throes of the maturation process, people will question many of the ersatz wisdoms we now take for granted, particularly those regarding lifestyle, work, advertising, business and consumption.  Voluntarily and inspired by the ground-swell forces of culture, people will more often make wise, big-picture, long-range choices, such as having fewer children, consuming less, and choosing appropriate technologies and sustainable policies.  What that society and world may look like we cannot say with certainty because—for most of us—seeing with those eyes is similar to asking a chimpanzee to visualize the double-helix DNA molecule turned on its side or asking a child to see the world through a parent’s eyes.  It is a level of awareness that the less mature do not yet have.  However, like the child we can develop—mature—into the wise human, the true Homo sapien