Why collapse? And what will it look like?

Societies and “civilizations” have come and gone, and the drivers of their evolution and the causes of their demise are many, and for most of them, mysterious; that is, our archaeological tools are still insufficient to clarify their stories through the hazy film of time.  What does seem clear is that overpopulation, over-consumption, and degradation of arable land are common to many of their stories, including those of history’s paragons, the Mesopotamian, Indus Valley, Roman, and Mayan civilizations.  Also clear is the significant role that societies played in their own demise. Inequality, entrenched interests, and complex institutions made societies rigid and unwieldy when challenges demanded flexibility. 

There have been many breakdowns in the past few centuries, but no actual collapses. Economic globalism and abundant energy-dense fossil fuels have prevented massive famine and have maintained our industrial (and financial) engines. Underneath Civilization’s shiny veneer, however, we note that some three billion people lack the most fundamental services expected by all living creatures as their birthright—adequate nutrition, fresh water, and a clean environment. Even at its peak, therefore, this version of Civilization has failed almost half its citizens. 

In this presentation, we will examine historical collapses, why collapse is probable this century (that is, why societies will disintegrate and populations will crash) how modern (globalized) civilization differs from the previous independent civilizations, and how collapse, for worse and for better, may play out across the world. We will also explore the implications for the East End, Long Island, and New York City.

PRODUCER: Carleton Schade

Carleton’s interests include cosmology, consciousness, earth systems, futurism, meditation, and literature. He is currently involved in a futuristic project entitled Dieback: the Science and Soul of the Coming Collapse. He has found passion in traveling, teaching, and writing; contentedness and love as a householder and through friendships; and peace through meditation and yoga.